01 / THE PRACTICAL QUESTION
A decision, before a model.
Two transition pathways can lead to very different timing of carbon costs and repricing for the same exposures.
Compare conditional exposure sensitivity across pathways without treating scenarios as forecasts.
02 / DATA & COMPARISON
The idea in plain language.
Constructed carbon-price and physical-risk paths feed explicit loss sensitivities. They expose the assumptions connecting a scenario to a portfolio outcome.
- Transition risk
- Potential losses associated with policy, technology, and economic changes during decarbonization.
Data. Constructed climate factors; NGFS publications provide external context.
Baseline. Static exposures with transparent shock coefficients.
03 / THE EXPERIMENT
What the saved experiment shows.
The saved demonstration contains six constructed pathways with 16 annual points each. Its delayed-transition carbon price reaches about 399 in 2050, compared with about 248 for net zero. These are generated scenario values, not official NGFS observations.
Inspect the supporting resultEvidence record: research-validation.json#numerical_checks/12
Explore the related lab04 / RESULTS & LIMITATIONS
Evidence with its boundaries attached.
The related lab is a cross-project demonstration. Read this investigation’s evidence and limits before transferring its conclusions.
Inspect numerical checks and validation records
Loading validation evidence…
Illustrative sensitivities are not an integrated assessment model or a validated climate forecast.
05 / REPRODUCE
Reproduce and challenge the result.
Code, configuration, and reproduction
The project contains its implementation, configuration, tests, and walkthrough. Download the lab configuration to record the exact parameters used in an interactive run.
Project code and walkthrough